Issue 1 - September 2022

Thirty years ago, in Italy, “Clean Hands” started. “Clean Hands” is known as the biggest corruption scandal in Italian modern history,  which completely disrupted the political system, leading to the dissolution of the main incumbent parties, and gave rise to corruption charges for about 23% of national parliamentarians.

Question: Do corruption scandals have a lasting impact on State legitimacy and trust? Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect is not known.

Methodology: Using a recent survey launched in 2017 (Trustlab, OECD), we focus on the cohort of first time voters (born in 1975-1976) in the election when this corruption scandal broke. We compare this particular cohort with the other cohorts, in areas more/less exposed to the scandal.

Results: We find that being made aware of corruption has a long-term impact on individuals’ trust in government, parliament and bureaucracy. The graph shows how the treated cohort (born in 1975-1976) behaves differently in terms of trust towards institutions compared to other cohorts, which voted for the first time in different years (base category 1974-1976). The effect is also substantial, as they have between 15 to 26 percent standard deviation lower trust in such institutions. A follow up survey reveals that their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting preferences. In particular, those young first time voters exposed to corruption were more likely to prefer populist parties at the 2018 national elections.