Happy to announce that the paper "Organized Crime, Violence and Support for the State", written by Gianmarco Daniele, Gian Maria Campedelli, Andrea F.M. Martinangeli and Paolo Pinotti has been accepted in the Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming).
The study investigates the influence of organized crime violence on public perceptions of organized crime and support for the state.
To address this unexplored issue, we conducted an experimental study with a representative sample of 6,000 individuals in Italy, a country with a historical presence of organized crime. Participants' perceptions of crime trends diverged significantly from actual data, overestimating a 26.6% increase in overall homicides and a 17.3% rise in organized crime-related killings over two decades, while data showed a reduction of approximately two-thirds. Exposure to journalistic depictions of violence related to organized crime led to increased trust in state institutions and perception of state performance, irrespective of factual corrections. These findings underscore the potential impact of media narratives on shaping public attitudes toward crime and state authorities.