Four new working papers!

Diogo Britto and Paolo Pinotti, Roberto Hsu Rocha (University of California, Berkley), and Breno Sampaio (Universidade Federall de Pernambuco) posted “Small Children, Big Problems: Childbirth and Crime.” They utilize administrative data from Brazil to find that becoming a parent increases criminal behavior and domestic violence, likely due to the pervasiveness of poverty among newly-formed Brazilian families.

Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie, and Gian Maria Campedelli (Fondazione Bruno Kessler) put out “Mafia, Politics and Machine Predictions.” This paper employs machine learning techniques to predict mafia infiltration in local Italian governments and further investigates the role that increases in public resources play in attracting criminal organizations.

Giovanna Marcolongo, Paolo Pinotti, and Thea How Choon (St. Lawrence University) posted “Money Talks to Autocrats, Bullets Whistle to Democrats: Political Influence Under Different Regimes.” Utilizing data from the Panama Papers and other similar leaks, they find that in autocracies, bribes increase in the time after elections whereas in democracies, attacks against politicians escalate prior to elections.

Zachary Porreca came out with “Identifying the General Equilibrium Effects of Narcotics Enforcement.” He employs cell phone data to study a locationally-targeted police intervention in “America’s largest open air drug market,” and finds evidence of broad regional effects and a consequent reduction in the demand for narcotics.