The next CLEAN seminar will take place on Monday 17 October at 4.30pm Italian time.
The presenter will be Evan Rose (University of Chicago). The title of the paper is "The Impact of Incarceration on Employment and Earnings".
We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state or any subsample. These
results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the recently incarcerated, who we estimate would earn only $5,000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.
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